Forked Android or AOSP smartphone will grow at 18 percent in 2015 against 93 percent in 2014 and 211 percent in 2013, said ABI Research.
The declining growth of forked Android reflects the slowdown of Chinese smartphones that will grow at 13 percent in 2015 and Indian phone manufacturers’ move into the certified Android camp through Google’s Android One.
The growth of Android will dip to 18 percent in 2015 from 34 percent in 2014, while Apple iOS will decrease to 3 percent from 7 percent and Microsoft Windows Phone will increase to 6 percent from 3 percent. BB10 will plummet to -52 percent from -40 percent, while other BlackBerry OS will reach -46 percent against -73 percent.
“AOSP’s growth has been driven by the growth of Chinese and Indian handset manufacturers, mainly in their domestic markets, but China’s growth is slowing and Android One is seeing some significant wins among Indian manufacturers like Micromax, Karbonn, Spice, Intex, and Lava, as well as some of the more International Chinese brands like Lenovo and Alcatel,” said Nick Spencer, senior practice director, Mobile Devices at ABI Research.
The ABI Research report said that Google has worked with chipset vendors Qualcomm and MediaTek to create Android One to control fragmentation. The main aim was to ensure its services are available and up to date in order to monetize the Android installed base efficiently, especially in the high growth low price tiers.
Android One will give further momentum to Google’s drive to commoditize the smartphone market. ABI Research predicts that AOSP continues to be a threat to Google’s mobile strategy, however, as the business environment for Google remains challenging in China and therefore AOSP will continue to flourish there.